Who is winning the prediction market race
$2.80B traded on Tue Oct 6, 2026 across 9 exchanges. Over the last 30 days Kalshi handled 75.0% of all volume, and combos (parlays) were 57.6% of volume at the exchanges that report them. Every figure comes from the exchanges' own daily reports.
Latest: Q3 2026 report · September 2026 · Biggest markets · Kalshi vs Polymarket · Lawsuits · Legal status by state · FAQ
Daily volume by exchange
Notional volume (contracts traded × $1 payout), from each exchange's daily report.
Standings
Ranked by volume over the window. Gap is behind the leader. Change compares with the window before.
| Pos | Exchange | Volume | Share | Gap to P1 | Change | Sports | Combos | Last 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1– | KalshiKalshiEX LLC | $66.9B | Leader | +59% | 84% | 61% | ||
| 2▲1 | Polymarket USQCX LLC (Polymarket US) | $10.2B | −$56.7B | +167% | 94% | 48% | ||
| 3▼1 | PolymarketPolymarket (international, on-chain) | $4.47B | −$62.4B | −1.2% | n/a | n/a | ||
| 4– | Crypto.com†Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) | $1.85B | −$65.0B | +90% | 93% | 29% | ||
| 5– | NovigNovig Exchange | $1.77B | −$65.1B | +134% | 100% | 46% | ||
| 6▲2 | DraftKingsRailbird Exchange, LLC (DraftKings Predictions) | $1.71B | −$65.2B | 6.8× | 100% | 61% | ||
| 7▼1 | Robinhood‡Rothera Markets (Robinhood / Susquehanna) | $1.25B | −$65.6B | +99% | 94% | 0% | ||
| 8▼1 | UnderdogUnderdog Exchange (UDX) | $953M | −$65.9B | +135% | 100% | 83% | ||
| 9– | GeminiGemini Titan, LLC | $44.1M | −$66.8B | +17% | 62% | 0% | ||
| 10– | ForecastExForecastEx LLC (Interactive Brokers) | $18.8M | −$66.9B | −13% | 0% | 0% | ||
| All exchanges | $89.1B | +66% |
Biggest markets
Tue Oct 6, 2026: single markets by volume, from Kalshi's and Polymarket US's daily files. Parlays left out.
| # | Market | Exchange | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia vs Spain UEFA Nations League · Oct 6 | Kalshi | $20.3M |
| 2 | Game 3: Los Angeles D vs Atlanta MLB · Oct 6 | Kalshi | $19.2M |
| 3 | Game 3: Milwaukee vs San Diego MLB · Oct 6 | Kalshi | $16.3M |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints NFL · Oct 6 | Polymarket US | $12.0M |
| 5 | Argentina vs Benin Intl Friendlies · Oct 6 | Kalshi | $8.1M |
| 6 | Holmgren vs Martinez ATP Challenger Villena · Oct 6 | Kalshi | $7.4M |
| 7 | Southern Miss vs Troy College football · Oct 6 | Kalshi | $5.7M |
| 8 | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians MLB · Oct 5 | Polymarket US | $5.7M |
| 9 | India vs West Indies T20 International (M) · Oct 6 | Kalshi | $5.5M |
| 10 | Justo vs Comesana ATP Challenger Antofagasta · Oct 6 | Kalshi | $5.4M |
What gets traded
Share of monthly volume at exchanges that publish a split.
Records
Highest single days in the dataset.
Weekly volume
Monday to Sunday, by each exchange's trading date. The latest week may be partial.
Latest from the legal tracker
Court rulings, regulator actions and state moves.
The fight over who regulates prediction markets
Federal appeals courts
Does federal commodities law override state gambling law for sports event contracts?
Next dates
Scheduled deadlines, arguments and expected rulings.
Cases
Every significant suit, appeal and enforcement action. Select a row for its history and sources.
States
Status of each state's action on prediction markets. Select a state.
Federal: CFTC, Congress and agencies
Rules, letters, enforcement, bills and hearings.
Timeline
The developments that moved the industry, newest first.
Research compiled from court dockets and opinions, CFTC and state regulator releases, and news coverage; each item links its sources. Not legal advice.
Where every number comes from
Volume Race reads each exchange's own daily report: the market-by-market files that CFTC-registered exchanges publish every trading day, and Polymarket's and Gemini's own data feeds. Nothing is estimated, scraped from third-party trackers, or modeled.
How volume is counted
- Notional volume. Contracts traded times what each contract pays out: $1 for nearly every contract (Crypto.com's price contracts paid $10 before April 2026). This is how the exchanges report, so exchanges are compared like for like. It is larger than the cash that changed hands; a $1 contract bought at 30¢ counts as $1 of volume.
- Counted where it trades. Apps that route orders to another exchange (Coinbase, Webull and PrizePicks to Kalshi; Fanatics and FanDuel to Crypto.com's exchange; Robinhood partly to Kalshi) are counted at that exchange, so nothing is counted twice.
- Combos are multi-leg contracts (parlays): Kalshi's multivariate markets, DraftKings' COMBO markets, Underdog's UDXCOMBO, Crypto.com's COMBOS group, Polymarket US combination contracts and Novig parlays. Combos are counted as sports.
- Sports and non-sports use each exchange's own product codes or categories (Kalshi's series categories, Gemini's categories, ForecastEx's product categories, league codes elsewhere). Polymarket's international venue publishes no split, so it drops out of the Sports, Non-sports, Single and Combos views.
- Days are each exchange's trading date as reported. Polymarket and Gemini report UTC days.
Sources
Updates, revisions and checks
- Files are collected three times a day, at about 8:20 a.m., 11:45 a.m. and 4:20 p.m. Eastern. Most exchanges post the previous day's file overnight.
- Each run re-reads the last ten days of every exchange, so corrected files replace earlier numbers. Revisions are logged.
- Every run checks for missing days, values far outside the recent range and splits that exceed totals. Problems show as a status flag at the top of the page instead of being smoothed over.
- An exchange that has not posted its latest file yet is marked in the standings, and its missing day is left blank rather than estimated.
Not included
- ProphetX became an exchange in June 2026 but publishes no public volume.
- CME Group event contracts publish only a same-day PDF with no history; FanDuel moved its sports contracts to Crypto.com's exchange in August 2026.
- On-chain venues such as Opinion, Limitless and Predict.fun have no company-published daily report.
Downloads
Daily rows for every exchange, with the source file for each day: all exchanges (CSV). Per exchange: Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, DraftKings, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Novig, Underdog, ForecastEx, Gemini. The full dataset behind this page: volume.json. Free to use with attribution to volumerace.com.