Legal tracker · as of Oct 15, 2026
Prediction market lawsuits and regulation
As of Oct. 15, 2026 the federal appeals courts are split 2-1 against CEA preemption for sports event contracts. The Third Circuit (KalshiEX v. Flaherty, Apr. 6, 2026, 2-1) held the CEA likely preempts New Jersey's gaming laws for sports contracts on a CFTC-registered exchange, while the Ninth Circuit (KalshiEX v. Assad, Aug. 28, 2026, 3-0, with companion Crypto.com and Robinhood rulings) and the Sixth Circuit (KalshiEX v. Schuler / v. Orgel, Sept. 25, 2026, 3-0) held, at the preliminary-injunction stage, that the contracts likely are not 'swaps' within the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, the Sixth Circuit adding that the CEA likely would not preempt state gambling law even if they were. The Fourth Circuit (Maryland, argued May 7, 2026) has not ruled; the Second Circuit (New York and Connecticut, heard in tandem) is in briefing; and appeals are pending or noticed in the Seventh (CFTC v. Wisconsin), Eighth (Iowa) and Tenth (Utah) Circuits, while Kalshi's en banc petitions are pending in the Ninth and (filed Oct. 9) the Sixth. Three cert petitions (Nos. 26-299, 26-338 and 26-344) await responses now due Nov. 9, Nov. 13 and Nov. 16, 2026 after Nevada obtained extensions in its two cases, and separately the Ninth Circuit held on Sept. 16, 2026 that the CEA does not displace tribal gaming rights under IGRA. On Oct. 9, 2026 the CFTC proposed adding event contracts, including sports, to the regulatory 'swap' definition and issued an interim final rule excluding licensed sportsbook and casino wagers; courts are not necessarily bound by that definition.
See also: every state's status · interactive tracker with filters
Federal appeals courts
Does federal commodities law override state gambling law for sports event contracts?
| 3rd Cir. | For Kalshi | New Jersey · Apr 6, 2026 · 2–1 |
| 9th Cir. | For the states | Nevada · Aug 28, 2026 · 3–0 |
| 6th Cir. | For the states | Ohio, Tennessee · Sep 25, 2026 · 3–0 · rehearing sought |
| 4th Cir. | Awaiting decision | Maryland · argued May 7, 2026 |
| 2nd Cir. | In briefing | New York, Connecticut |
| 7th · 8th · 10th | Appeals pending | Wisconsin, Iowa, Utah |
| Supreme Court | 3 petitions pending | Nos. 26-299, 26-338, 26-344 · responses due Nov 9–16 |
Cases
45 suits, appeals and enforcement actions, most recent activity first. Select a case for its history and sources.
| Case | Status | Last action |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi v. New Jersey Supreme Court of the United States (petition); U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit; U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey | For the exchanges Injunction for Kalshi affirmed; NJ cert petition pending | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Robinhood v. Nevada Supreme Court of the United States (petition); U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada | For the states Denial of interim relief affirmed; cert petition pending | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. Ohio U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio | For the states Denial of injunction affirmed (3-0); rehearing petition pending | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. Tennessee U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee | For the states Kalshi's injunction vacated on appeal; rehearing petition pending | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Crypto.com v. Nevada Supreme Court of the United States (petition); U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada | For the states PI denial affirmed; cert petition pending | Oct 8, 2026 |
| California tribes v. Kalshi & Robinhood U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California | Mixed PI denial reversed on IGRA claims; mandate issued, back in district court | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Seminole Tribe v. DraftKings Circuit Court of the Seventeenth Judicial Circuit, Broward County, Florida | Pending Filed — no rulings | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Coinbase v. Michigan U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan | For the states PI denied; appeal stayed; Coinbase agreed to halt Michigan sports contracts | Oct 7, 2026 |
| U.S. v. Van Dyke (alleged insider trading on Polymarket) U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York | Pending Charged — motion to dismiss argued, under advisement | Oct 7, 2026 |
| CFTC v. Kentucky U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky | Pending Pending — argument postponed; supplemental briefing ordered | Oct 5, 2026 |
| CFTC v. Illinois U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois | For the exchanges PI granted in part (licensing); fee challenge reserved | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. Nevada (federal) U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada | For the states Dissolution of Kalshi's injunction affirmed (3-0); en banc petition pending | Sep 25, 2026 |
| New York AG v. Polymarket Supreme Court of the State of New York, New York County (reported removed); U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York | Pending Just filed; Polymarket countersued | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. Montana U.S. District Court for the District of Montana | Mixed Dismissed by joint stipulation | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Ho-Chunk Nation v. Kalshi U.S. District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin; U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit (petition for permission to appeal) | Mixed IGRA claim survives; interlocutory appeal sought | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. Iowa U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Iowa; U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit | For the states PI denied; appeal noticed | Sep 15, 2026 |
| CFTC v. New York U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York | Pending Pending — PI motion argued | Sep 14, 2026 |
| CFTC & Kalshi v. Arizona U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona; U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit | For the exchanges Injunction for CFTC blocks Arizona enforcement; state seeks to dissolve | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Underdog's multistate preemption suits U.S. District Courts for the District of Massachusetts, District of New Mexico, Northern District of Ohio, Western District of Wisconsin and Western District of Washington | Pending Filed — no rulings | Sep 14, 2026 |
| CFTC v. Connecticut U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut | Pending Pending — PI and intervention motions | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. Maryland U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland | For the states Pending — argued May 7, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. New York (Gaming Commission) U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit; U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York | For the states PI denied; appeal in briefing | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Robinhood & Polymarket v. Michigan U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan | For the states PIs denied; appeals pending; Robinhood paused Michigan sports contracts | Sep 4, 2026 |
| Kalshi & Coinbase v. Connecticut U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit; U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut | For the states PIs denied; appeals pending | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Michigan AG v. Kalshi Circuit Court for the 30th Judicial Circuit (Ingham County), Michigan; U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit (removal appeal) | For the states Preliminary injunction in effect | Sep 1, 2026 |
| White House teleprompter operator (Kalshi mention markets) Commodity Futures Trading Commission (administrative order) | Mixed Settled — CFTC order | Aug 28, 2026 |
| New York AG v. Kalshi Supreme Court of the State of New York, New York County (removed to U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York) | Pending Removed to federal court; remand motion pending | Aug 21, 2026 |
| CFTC v. Wisconsin U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit; U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Wisconsin | For the states PI denied; appeals pending in Seventh Circuit | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Washington AG v. Kalshi King County Superior Court, Washington | For the states Preliminary injunction in effect | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. Utah U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit; U.S. District Court for the District of Utah | For the states PI denied; appeal pending | Aug 5, 2026 |
| George Santos State of the Union contract manipulation Commodity Futures Trading Commission (administrative order) | Mixed Settled — CFTC order | Jul 31, 2026 |
| CFTC v. Minnesota (prediction-market ban) U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota | For the exchanges PI blocks Minnesota's ban | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Nevada v. Kalshi (state court) First Judicial District Court, Carson City, Nevada; Supreme Court of Nevada | For the states Preliminary injunction in effect; appeal pending | Jul 23, 2026 |
| CFTC v. New Mexico U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico | Pending Pending | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Robinhood consumer class action U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California | Pending Pending | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Nevada v. Polymarket First Judicial District Court, Carson City, Nevada | For the states Preliminary injunction in effect | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. Rhode Island U.S. District Court for the District of Rhode Island | Pending Pending; CFTC intervened | May 28, 2026 |
| CFTC v. Spagnuolo (alleged insider trading on Polymarket) U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York | Pending Charged — pending | May 27, 2026 |
| New Mexico tribes v. Kalshi Federal district court in New Mexico (reported; not verified) | Pending Pending | May 12, 2026 |
| Arizona criminal case v. Kalshi Maricopa County Superior Court, Arizona (per secondary reporting) | For the exchanges Halted by federal injunction | May 5, 2026 |
| Massachusetts AG v. Kalshi Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court; Suffolk County Superior Court | For the states PI granted (stayed); SJC decision pending | May 4, 2026 |
| New York AG v. Coinbase & Gemini Supreme Court of the State of New York, New York County (removed to U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York) | Pending Removed to federal court; pending | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Nevada v. Coinbase First Judicial District Court, Carson City, Nevada | For the states Preliminary injunction in effect | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Kalshi consumer class action (illegal sportsbook) U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York | Pending Pending — consolidated | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Kalshi v. CFTC (election contracts) U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia; U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit | For the exchanges Kalshi won; CFTC appeal abandoned | – |
Federal: CFTC, Congress and agencies
Latest 15.
| Oct 9, 2026 | CFTC | CFTC proposes defining event contracts as 'swaps' Proposed rule 'Further Definition of Swap to Include Event Contracts' would add a paragraph to the swap definition in 17 CFR 1.3 expressly covering 'event contracts, including those based on sports, politics, cultural, and weather-related events.' Comments are due 30 days after Federal Register publication. Courts interpreting the CEA are not necessarily bound by the definition; Kalshi cited it the same day in its Sixth Circuit rehearing petition. |
| Sep 30, 2026 | DOJ | DOJ tells court Polymarket event contracts are swaps In the Van Dyke insider-trading prosecution, SDNY prosecutors argued in a letter to Judge Margaret Garnett that binary event contracts on a Venezuela military operation are 'swaps' because they could hedge financial consequences. Judge Garnett heard argument on the motion to dismiss on Oct. 7, 2026 and took it under advisement. |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Congress | House Oversight widens insider-trading probe Chairman James Comer sent records demands to Crypto.com, Hyperliquid and PredictIt on identity checks, insider-trading detection and trading by government officials. His May inquiry into Kalshi and Polymarket had already produced nearly 1,000 documents. |
| Sep 28, 2026 | CFTC | CFTC sends two 'swap' definition rules to White House review OIRA received a proposed rule, 'Further Definition of Swap to Include Event Contracts,' and an interim final rule, 'Further Definition of Swap to Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products.' The interim final rule would take effect on publication without prior notice and comment. Neither text was public as of Oct 1, 2026. Both were issued on Oct. 9, 2026 (see separate entries). |
| Sep 22, 2026 | CFTC | Staff advisory on 'mention' markets The Division of Market Oversight set out conditions for listing contracts on whether a person will say a word, attend an event or interact with someone. Staff said these contracts carry elevated manipulation risk and need contract-specific analysis under Core Principle 3. |
| Sep 15, 2026 | CFTC | Chairman Selig meets tribal gaming organizations Chairman Selig held a closed-door roundtable with tribal gaming groups. Tribal leaders maintained that sports event contracts function as betting and undermine gaming compacts. |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Congress | Senate cloture vote on CLARITY Act fails, 49-50 The crypto market-structure bill (H.R. 3633), which would have set uniform federal rules and preemption for prediction markets, fell short of 60 votes. Commercial and tribal gaming groups had sought language barring sports contracts on CFTC platforms. |
| Aug 28, 2026 | CFTC | Ex-White House teleprompter operator settles insider-trading case Gabriel Perez used nonpublic information about presidential speeches to trade mention-market contracts on KalshiEX between Dec 2025 and Feb 2026. He agreed to disgorge $107,539.02, pay a $65,000 penalty and accept a three-year trading ban. |
| Aug 12, 2026 | CFTC | Advisory on self-certified incentive programs for prediction markets Staff cited a rising number of deficient market-maker and incentive-program filings by DCMs and set expectations for future submissions under Regulations 40.5 and 40.6. |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CFTC | CFTC uses emergency authority after New York sues Kalshi Responding to New York's July 31 suit, which seeks to bar Kalshi's event contracts and more than $36 billion, the CFTC invoked its emergency powers. It said the state action threatened a uniform national derivatives market. |
| Aug 7, 2026 | CFTC | Staff warns against sportsbook-style odds displays Staff said showing event-contract prices in 'American' odds format is likely to mislead participants about the transaction. Exchanges must present products as exchange-traded event contracts. |
| Jul 31, 2026 | CFTC | George Santos fined for manipulating a State of the Union contract The former congressman traded a contract on whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union while posting misleading statements about his plans. He agreed to pay $17,569.98 in disgorgement and a $17,500 penalty, with a three-year trading ban. |
| Jul 24, 2026 | CFTC | Advisory on self-certifying event contract series Staff told DCMs not to file broad, template-style certifications that combine many contract variations. Closely related contracts may still be certified as a class. |
| Jul 24, 2026 | CFTC | New DCMs: Optex Markets, Water Street Labs, Juice Exchange The CFTC's list shows three July designations: Optex Markets (July 9), Water Street Labs (July 16) and Juice Exchange/JuiceX (July 24). Fanatics reportedly bought Water Street Labs and CX Clearinghouse from BGC Group on July 27. |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Congress | House version of Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act Reps. Steven Horsford and Mark Amodei, both of Nevada, introduced a bill to bar sports and casino-style contracts on CFTC-registered entities while preserving weather and economic hedges. It is the companion to S. 4160. |
Timeline
Latest 20 developments.
| Oct 9, 2026 | CFTC proposes treating event contracts as swaps, carves out sportsbooks A proposed rule would define sports, political, cultural and weather event contracts as swaps (30-day comment period); an interim final rule excludes licensed sportsbook and casino wagers from the swap definition. |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kalshi seeks rehearing of Sixth Circuit loss Petition for panel or en banc rehearing in the Ohio and Tennessee appeals cites a split with the Third and Ninth Circuits and the CFTC's same-day rules. |
| Oct 8, 2026 | NFL urges Supreme Court to hear New Jersey's Kalshi case The NFL, Gary Gensler, Chris Dodd, and the AGA with 145 tribes and tribal organizations filed amicus briefs backing New Jersey's petition; the Casino Association of New Jersey followed on Oct. 9. |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Seminole Tribe sues DraftKings over Florida prediction contracts State-court suit says DraftKings Predictions and Pick6 violate the Tribe's exclusive sports-betting compact; includes a racketeering claim against CEO Jason Robins. |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Gemini, ProphetX and WeBull exit Connecticut sports contracts Reported halt follows the Department of Consumer Protection's September demand letters; six other recipients have not been reported to stop. |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Nevada gets more time to answer two Supreme Court petitions The Clerk extended Nevada's deadlines to respond to Crypto.com's petition to Nov. 16 and to Robinhood's to Nov. 13, 2026; with Kalshi's Nov. 9 response in New Jersey's case, the Court is unlikely to consider any of the three before late November. |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 39 states and D.C. back New Jersey's Supreme Court petition Ohio, 38 other states and the District of Columbia submitted an amicus brief in No. 26-299; Stop Predatory Gambling et al. and the Cabazon Band of Cahuilla Indians (Oct. 6) also filed in support. |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Coinbase agrees to halt sports contracts in Michigan Under a stipulation, Coinbase stops new sports event contracts and closes positions by Oct. 10; Michigan holds off enforcement while Sixth Circuit appeals proceed. |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Judge hears Van Dyke's bid to dismiss Polymarket insider case Judge Margaret Garnett (S.D.N.Y.) questioned whether commodities and fraud laws reach the trades and took the motions under advisement. |
| Oct 6, 2026 | PrizePicks suspends sports prediction product in Missouri Team Picks paused citing 'updated legal requirements' after the AG's September cease-and-desist letters to six operators. |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Kentucky judge postpones CFTC argument for supplemental briefing The Oct. 9 argument was canceled; briefs on the Sixth Circuit ruling and CFTC rulemaking are due Oct. 23. (Corrects an earlier listing of an Oct. 9 argument.) |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Ohio orders 10 more operators to stop sports event contracts Casino Control Commission letters to Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, Novig, Underdog, ProphetX, Webull, Plus500 and Moomoo set an Oct. 16 compliance deadline. |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Illinois judge partly blocks state enforcement against Kalshi and Coinbase Judge Martha Pacold found Illinois licensing rules likely conflict with the CEA for sports contracts but reserved the tax question; proposed injunction terms are due Oct. 29. |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Gaming regulator groups back New Jersey's Supreme Court petition IAGR and NAGRA filed an amicus brief in No. 26-299 saying the appellate decisions 'cannot be reconciled.' |
| Sep 30, 2026 | DOJ argues Polymarket contracts are swaps in Van Dyke case Prosecutors' letter to Judge Garnett ahead of Oct. 7 argument on the soldier's motion to dismiss. |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Ohio governor vows enforcement against Kalshi Gov. DeWine called prediction markets gambling after the Sixth Circuit ruling; no new formal action announced. |
| Sep 28, 2026 | CFTC sends event-contract 'swap' rules to White House review OIRA received a proposed rule defining event contracts as swaps and an interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling products. |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Nevada opposes Kalshi's bid to delay en banc review Nevada argued pending CFTC rulemaking would not change the Ninth Circuit's statutory analysis (filing date per secondary reports). |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Sixth Circuit rules against Kalshi in the Ohio and Tennessee appeals A unanimous panel found Kalshi unlikely to show its sports contracts are swaps that preempt state law, deepening the split with the Third Circuit. |
| Sep 24, 2026 | New York sues Polymarket; Polymarket countersues in federal court The state seeks a shutdown, restitution and treble damages from Polymarket's U.S. arm, QCX. |
Questions
Are prediction markets like Kalshi legal?
Kalshi and the other exchanges are registered with the CFTC, and they argue federal law overrides state gambling law for event contracts. Courts are divided: As of Oct. 15, 2026 the federal appeals courts are split 2-1 against CEA preemption for sports event contracts. Not legal advice.
How many lawsuits involve prediction markets?
The tracker follows 45 cases, including 24 suits over whether federal law preempts state gambling law. Of those, 13 have gone the states' way so far, 4 the exchanges', 1 are mixed and 6 are pending. 27 states have taken action of some kind.
Is the Supreme Court considering prediction markets?
3 petitions are pending at the Supreme Court as of Oct 15, 2026.
Compiled from court dockets and opinions, CFTC and state regulator releases, and news coverage; each case page links its sources. Re-checked every Monday and Thursday. Not legal advice.