Prediction market volume: FAQ

How much do prediction markets trade per day?

$2.80B on Tue Oct 6, 2026, across 9 exchanges. Over the 30 days through Oct 6, 2026, volume averaged $2.97B a day, $89.14B in all, up 66% from the 30 days before.

Which prediction market has the most volume?

Kalshi, with 75.0% of notional volume over the 30 days through Oct 6, 2026. Polymarket US had 11.4%, Polymarket had 5.0%, Crypto.com had 2.1%. Every exchange, ranked.

Is Kalshi bigger than Polymarket?

Yes, by notional volume over the 30 days through Oct 6, 2026: Kalshi traded $66.89B and Polymarket $14.66B ($4.47B on its international exchange and $10.19B on Polymarket US). Kalshi had 82.0% of the two companies' combined volume. Kalshi vs Polymarket, in full.

How much did prediction markets trade in September 2026?

$80.77B across 10 exchanges, up 58% from August. Kalshi led with 75.3%. September 2026 report · All reports.

How much did prediction markets trade in Q3 2026?

$188.91B, or $2.05B a day, up 81% from the quarter before. Q3 2026 report.

How much prediction market volume is sports?

86% over the last 30 days, at the exchanges that publish a sports split (all except Polymarket). Combos (parlays) were 58% of volume at the exchanges that report them. The rest is politics, economics, crypto, weather, culture and other non-sports markets.

What was the biggest day for prediction market volume?

Sun Oct 4, 2026, with $5.00B across all exchanges tracked, the highest day since tracking began on Jan 1, 2025. Year to date, 2026 volume is $376.74B, against $22.40B over the same period of 2025, when fewer exchanges were open.

What was the most traded prediction market yesterday?

Croatia vs Spain on Kalshi, at $20.3M on Tue Oct 6, 2026, then Game 3: Los Angeles D vs Atlanta ($19.2M). Top 20 and past days.

What does prediction market volume measure?

Notional volume: the number of contracts traded times what each contract pays if it wins, which is $1 for nearly every contract (Crypto.com's price contracts paid $10 before April 2026). It is how the exchanges report, so exchanges can be compared like for like. It is larger than the cash that changes hands: a $1 contract bought at 30¢ counts as $1 of volume.

Why do prediction market volume figures differ between sources?

Four common reasons. Some trackers count cash spent rather than notional contracts. Some count an order twice when an app routes it to another exchange; Volume Race counts it once, where it trades. Polymarket runs two exchanges, its international one and Polymarket US, which some sources combine. And exchanges close their trading day at different times; Polymarket and Gemini report UTC days. How each exchange is measured.

Which prediction market exchanges does Volume Race track?

10: Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Novig, DraftKings, Robinhood, Underdog, Gemini, ForecastEx. All are CFTC-registered exchanges except Polymarket's international exchange, which runs on-chain.

Where does the data come from?

From each exchange's own published daily report: the market-by-market files that CFTC-registered exchanges post every trading day, and Polymarket's and Gemini's own volume feeds. Nothing is estimated, modeled or taken from third-party trackers. Sources for every exchange.

How often is the data updated?

Files are collected three times a day, at about 8:20 a.m., 11:45 a.m. and 4:20 p.m. Eastern. Most exchanges post the previous day's file overnight, so the morning run usually completes the day before. Each run re-reads recent days, so corrected files replace earlier numbers. The latest complete day is Oct 6, 2026.

Can I download or use the data?

Yes, free with attribution to volumerace.com (CC BY 4.0). All exchanges, daily (CSV), one CSV per exchange on each exchange page, the full dataset (JSON) and a short summary (JSON). Every CSV row links the exchange's source file for that day.

Are prediction markets legal in my state?

Exchanges registered with the CFTC say federal law lets them offer event contracts in every state. 27 states have taken action of some kind (lawsuits, regulator orders or warnings, bills or taxes) as of Oct 15, 2026. Find your state for its actions, cases and sources. Not legal advice.

Does Crypto.com's volume include crypto price contracts?

Yes. Crypto.com's exchange (Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, formerly Nadex) lists short-dated price contracts on crypto, currencies, stock indexes and commodities alongside its sports and event contracts, and Volume Race counts both, as it does for Kalshi and Polymarket, whose totals include their crypto price markets. Price contracts were 7% of Crypto.com's volume over the last 30 days. They paid $10 per contract until April 2026 and $1 since, and each is counted at the payout it carried. Knock-out and call-spread options, which have variable payouts, are not counted.

What is not included?

ProphetX publishes no public volume. CME Group's event contracts publish only a same-day file with no history. On-chain venues such as Opinion, Limitless and Predict.fun have no company-published daily report. Volume that an app routes to another exchange (Coinbase, Webull and PrizePicks to Kalshi; Fanatics and FanDuel to Crypto.com) is counted at that exchange.